08/01/10 04:43:25 qp0f1vi80
ありゃ いつの間にか下げてたのね
↓ダメリカの掲示板見てたらこんな意見があったｙｏ けっこうレスもついてた
Great company, but the stock is overvalued. Some thoughts...
I'm happy to have made money on NTDOY, from 2006-07, buying in at $20. At that price, it was a
steal. NTDOY was about to dominate the handheld market with the imminent release of the DS Lite,
and the Wii was just what the industry needed. So now Nintendo is king. Yay! Well done them,
they've played this brilliantly.
HOWEVER, you can't be king of the consoles forever. While the DS will continue to reign supreme for
the forseeable future, the Wii's days as King are numbered. Japan has already lost its appetite for the
machine, while Europe and America are still going crazy for it - for now. Yup, crazy for this new
wonderful toy. And that's what the Wii is. A Toy. The 360 and, yes, the PS3 will gain considerable
ground in the coming months and years, as AAA titles excite gamers across the globe. The Wii,
however, is still reliant on 1st party software and the hardware will seem increasingly antiquated as
time goes on. It's selling because it's new, it's cheap and the concept is amazing. Shame about the
execution - the games are almost all terrible.
Tomorrow I'll be selling my Wii. The Wii got me back into gaming, but the XBOX 360 has showed me
what is possible. Japan will slowly shift over to the PS3 now (actually, it's already happening). When
GTA4 appears in spring 08, then the Wii will start to look a lot less attractive in the USA/Europe, and
MILLIONS of new consumers will flock to the more powerful 360/PS3 consoles.
Congrats to everyone who has made money on NTDOY. But I hope you will understand that the
peaks are over for this stock, barring irrational exuberance (which is possible, but not worth betting
on). I have no position in NTDOY, nor do I have the facility to buy or sell NTDOY anymore, as I closed
my US trading account (I'm in the UK, and opened the account just to buy NTDOY). You can look
back at many of these games stocks and see massive spikes when it seemed like they could do no
wrong. Right now, the market sees Nintendo as a permanent growth story, as the saviour of the
games industry, as the Apple of video games. Well, get in your time machine, go forward 3 years,
then look back at these lofty prices and chuckle. Because with no handheld competition to speak of, a
dominant position in the home console market, and Wiis selling out everywhere, perception for
Nintendo is AS GOOD AS IT CAN POSSIBLY GET. There is no perception upside from here. As the
reigning king, Nintendo can only disappoint going forwards.
The Wii is not the next ipod, it's more like a really amazing Tickle Me Elmo, and I don't believe this
global enthusiasm will continue for much longer.
Last time I checked Nintendo had become the 2nd biggest company in Japan, by market cap. It's
now considerably bigger than Sony (which was twice as big as NTDOY, not so long ago). Where can it
go from here?
Right now, I hold a single video game stock (actually, I have a spread bet position). TTWO - it's
cheap, it's a takeover target in the light of the ATVI-Blizz deal, GTA 4 hype is still to come and that
game will be HUGE, and it's got a great new IP in Bioshock. It's reporting earnings tomorrow, which I
expect will please the market, and hopefully updating us re GTA.
Other than TTWO, ERTS is possibly worth keeping an eye on, but I think ATVI is expensive. THQI is
one to avoid at all costs, IMHO, because its licenses will be taken back by the licensors over the
coming years, leaving its business model severly hampered.
Hope someone's listening out there. Just sharing my humble thoughts!!
Rob
Sentiment : Sell