11/10/11 08:13:49.61 MAeFgzHj
これは今日のWSJに寄稿された、バークレイズ銀行・香港支店の主任エコノミストの書いているもので、一言で言えば「最近一部で言わ
れるような中国経済のハードランディングはありえない」というもの。最近報道されて議論を呼んでいる不動産価格の低下、地方政府の
債務問題の悪化、中小企業の経営難といったものは中央政府が管理できる範囲の内側にあるので中国の金融経済システムのメルトダウン
につながることはない、とする。興味ある主張だけれど、ちょっと議論が大雑把な気もする
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URLﾘﾝｸ(online.wsj.com)
OPINION ASIAOCTOBER 10, 2011, 4:58 P.M. ET
Reading the China Risk By YIPING HUANG
Small-business defaults and falling house prices are manageable problems. A global recession won't be.
中国のリスクを読む：中小企業の破綻や住宅価格の低落は（中国政府の）管理可能なものである。グローバル・リセッション
はそうではないが By YIPING HUANG
The People's Bank of China has been tightening monetary policy for more than a year and economic activity has been
moderating. It is entirely normal for a number of SMEs to fail as costs of both labor and capital rise.
Informal lending is risky by definition. At an estimated 4 trillion yuan ($627 billion), however, it is only about 8% of the
banking sector's total credit. While there are large number of media reports on problems of SMEs and informal lending, most
cases occurred in Wenzhou city. Wenzhou is a very small part of the country, accounting for less than 1% of China's GDP.
Local governments, with total borrowing of 10.7 trillion yuan or 27% of GDP largely via off-balance-sheet entities, are a
potential problem for both the financial and fiscal system. Much of the borrowing was used for investment projects,
especially construction of infrastructure, during the past three years. It will be difficult for local-government-linked
entities to immediately pay back the loans when they gradually mature, starting from this year. But the local governments
have both strong political wills and sufficient state assets to keep these borrowings from turning bad, at least before the
leadership transition in early 2013.
Most of the current economic problems are, in one way or another, related to incomplete restructuring of the financial
system. Despite major steps of reforms during the past decades, the Chinese financial system remains highly repressive.
Most importantly, financial institutions still act more like policy agents in allocating credit. Key interest rates are
tightly regulated by the state, and the private sector's access to finance remains highly restricted.
Yet despite these problems?and an inevitable uptick in nonperforming loans following the 2008-09 credit-driven stimulus?the
banks' balance sheets are quite healthy today. Their average nonperforming loan ratio is way below 2%, their average capital
adequacy ratio is above 10%, while their reserve requirement ratio is at 21.5%. All these provide ample room for the banks
to absorb bad assets without causing systemic financial risks.