11/10/08 15:20:44.57 4FnJ7NZi
It’s worth asking, in this context, whether Obama’s jobs bill would actually change that dynamic at all. It might help at
the margin ? if you’re working hard enough to burn through the fat reserves of highly-qualified graduates and moms and
immigrants, you might eventually start cutting into the hard muscle mass of the long-term unemployed. But my gut feeling is
that the effect of the jobs bill will be much bigger on employment figures than on unemployment figures.
このコンテキストで、オバマ大統領の雇用創出法案が労働市場のダイナミクスを帰ることが出来るかを考えてみることは意味なしでは
ない。この法案が全く効果がないとは言えない。高いクオリフィケーションのある卒業生とか既婚女性とか移民には助けになるかもし
れない。しかしこの法案は失業率の数字にではなく就業率の数字に影響があるのだろうと思う。
Is there anything the government can do to bring unemployment down? Or is it now too late? If we are indeed in the early
months of a double-dip recession, than I think it is too late: unemployment is more likely to go up than it is down from
here. And even if the economy’s still managing to eke out modest growth, I don’t see much hope that the unemployment rate
will come down to a remotely acceptable level any time soon. Realistically, America’s unemployed are here to stay. And
we’re only just beginning to understand how that’s going to affect the political economy of the nation.
失業率の数字を下げるために政府のできることはあるのだろうか？ 或いは時既に遅しなのだろうか？ もしも我々がダブルディップ
リセッションに向かうのであれば、私は時既に遅しだと思う。失業率は多分増大するだろう。また経済が穏やかな成長を維持できる場合
であっても、私は失業率改善に多くを期待できないと思う。失業率が受け入れ可能なレベルに下がるようなことは当分なさそうだ。リア
リスティックに言って、アメリカの高い失業率は継続するだろう。我々はそれが、国の政治経済にどういう影響があるのかを理解し始め
たばかりである。
＊注1 雇用統計では失業者のカテゴリーをU1からU6まで分けて数字を出していて、この定義は：
U1: Percentage of labour force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labour force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked
for work within the past four weeks.
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them
believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work,
but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).