11/05/20 05:48:07.24 JfgW2mKt
日本のＧＤＰ減少を評して、WSJ
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URLﾘﾝｸ(online.wsj.com)
REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASIAMAY 20, 2011
Japan's Pre-Earthquake Recession
The economy was in trouble before the quake, and will be after the rebuilding if Tokyo isn't careful.
But other data released yesterday point to a bigger problem: The government revised downward its GDP data for the last
three months of 2010, now saying the economy contracted by 0.8% in that period, worse than the -0.3% estimated before.
The earthquake wrought considerable damage, but Japan was ailing months earlier.
Since Japan was already sliding into recession before March 11, that status quo ante would actually mean anemic growth or
a recession. The only way to avoid that fate is to ensure a new stirring of animal spirits alongside the rebuilding.
Self-deception about the nature of the coming GDP uptick could thwart that.
Especially so if politicians, staring down the barrel of a debt around 200% of the economy, wrongly believe that
rebuilding-induced "growth" gives them latitude to impose antigrowth policies. Everyone should be especially concerned
about bad ideas like the consumption tax, beloved of so-called fiscal hawks such as Prime Minister Naoto Kan.
That would be dangerous for a deflation-addled economy, no matter the extent to which rebuilding-related spending masks
the weak consumer sentiment on display in yesterday's data.
＞＞＞＞Everyone should be especially concerned about bad ideas like the consumption tax・・・