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Japan LNG imports surge, supporting global prices By James Herron May 17, 2011, 7:37 p.m. EDT
日本の4月の液化天然ガス(LNG)輸入が23％増加、世界のLNG価格に影響 マーkレットウオッチ 17日
LONDON -(MarketWatch)- Japan's imports of liquefied natural gas surged 23% in April compared with the same month in 2010,
after the March earthquake and tsunami shut down several of the country's nuclear reactors, according to data published
late Monday by ship tracking service Waterborne.
Analysts said this elevated demand will continue this year and next, absorbing all of the surplus LNG supply that consumers
had hoped would keep down prices in the other big LNG market--Europe.
"While a year ago some market commentators talked of the global glut of LNG, we believe the focus for investors should be on
the impending global LNG shortage," Bernstein Research said in a note to clients.
The surge in Japanese LNG demand was "driven primarily by the shutdown of a significant amount of Japan's nuclear generating
capacity," the report from Waterborne said. To replace the lost nuclear energy, Japan had little choice but to turn to
oil- or natural gas-burning power plants fuelled by seaborne imports.
震災後の火力発電用に日本がLNG輸入を増やしているために、4月の日本の輸入は23％増大した。アナリストは世界のLNMGのすべての
余剰部分を日本が輸入するという状況が1－2年は続くと見ており、欧州のLNG価格にも影響が出ている。日本の需要のためにLNG価格
は以前に予想された低下に至らない。
North America is unlikely to be affected by this, because thanks to the boom in shale gas production it doesn't need to
import LNG, Barclays said. However, Europe will probably see LNG imports drop later this year, it said.
This will be a dramatic reversal because Europe had been the chief beneficiary of abundant LNG supplies for the last couple
of years, notably from the world's largest LNG producer, Qatar.
このLNG価格への日本の需要増の影響は、シェールガスの開発の進む北アメリカには関係しない。しかし欧州は世界最大のLNG輸出国
であるカタールからの輸入に期待していたが、欧州のLNG輸入は今年は増加しないと見られる
Now Qatar is promising extra LNG supplies to Japan, drawing supply away from Europe, said Robert Johnston, director of
Energy and Natural Resources at Eurasia Group. "This diversion could tighten up U.K. markets this summer as the incremental
Qatari cargoes heading to Japan probably would have otherwise ended up in the U.K. market," he said.
The U.K.'s largest gas supplier, Centrica PLC (CNA.LN), has already warned that prices are rising, "in the wake of the
natural disaster and subsequent nuclear issues in Japan and unrest in North Africa and the Middle East."
カタールがLNG輸出を日本にあてることで、欧州への輸出は減少するとシンクタンク、ユーラシアグループのRobert Johnstonが言う。
日本の需要がなければカタールのLNGは英国に回されたであろうという。英国ではこのために価格上昇が警戒されている。