08/05/04 00:03:32 LntKePDT
>>80日本の財政問題に不安があるなら、この論文がお勧め
Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability
CHRISTIAN M. BRODA
University of Chicago - Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
DAVID E. WEINSTEIN
Columbia University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
January 22, 2008
Abstract:
We analyze fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability in Japan using a variant of the methodology developed
in Blanchard (1990). We find that Japan can achieve fiscal sustainability over a 100-year horizon with
relatively small changes in the tax-to-GDP ratio. Our analysis differs from more pessimistic analyses
in several dimensions. First, since Japanese net debt is only half that of gross debt, we demonstrate
that the current debt burden is much lower than is typically reported. This means that monetization of
the debt will have little impact on Japan's fiscal sustainability because Japan's problem is the level of
future liabilities not current ones. Second, we argue that one obtains very different projections of
social security burdens based on the standard assumption that Japan's population is on a trend towards
extinction rather than transitioning to a new lower level. Third, we demonstrate that some modest cost
containment of the growth rate of real per capita benefits, such as cutting expenditures for shrinking
demographic categories, can dramatically lower the necessary tax burden. In sum, no scenario involves
Japanese taxes rising above those in Europe today and many result in tax-to-GDP ratios comparable to
those in the United States.
URLﾘﾝｸ(papers.ssrn.com)
全文
URLﾘﾝｸ(digitalcommons.libraries.columbia.edu)
>We find that Japan can achieve fiscal sustainability over a 100-year horizon with relatively small changes
>in the tax-to-GDP ratio.
安心できた？w