07/02/25 06:22:37 ivMiQM0h
＜08大統領選挙予測、ジュリアーニ・ＶＳ・ヒラリー、各州の票読み＞
酷く気の早い話だけれど、08大統領選挙を「ジュリアーニ・ＶＳ・ヒラリー」と仮定した
場合の、現時点のデータから見た各州の票読みを選挙分析のベテランであるMichael Barone
がＵＳＮ＆ＷＲに書いているもの。興味深い指摘が幾つかある。
URLﾘﾝｸ(www.usnews.com)
Newt Vs. Hillary
ヒラリーが女性の有権者に、多くの州でジュリアーニに比べて支持されていない・・
First, there's a huge difference between men and women in almost every state. Hillary
carried men only in California (48 to 45 percent), which has 55 electoral votes.
Rudy carries women in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana,
Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina,
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia,
and Wyoming: 194 electoral votes. That's a huge advantage for Giuliani, though if we
assume his lead over Clinton is not as great today as it was last July, not as huge as
the contrast between 194 and 55 suggests.
現時点での票読み、04選挙をベースに計算してみると・・
Then I took the average Republicanward or Democraticward movement. What you'll find is
that all 11 eastern states and D.C. move toward Rudy; eight of the 12 midwestern states
move toward Hillary; 10 of the 13 western states move toward Rudy; and 12 of the 14
southern states move toward Hillary. More states move toward Hillary than toward Rudy.
But the movement overall benefits Rudy.
04大統領選挙に比べて08大統領選挙での共和党の各地での得失予想
EAST
Rhode Island +12.5 The biggest move toward Rudy in the most heavily Italian-
American states. Puts it in play.
Connecticut +10 Big movement toward Rudy in NYC suburbs. Puts it in play.
New Jersey +10 Big movement toward Rudy in NYC suburbs. Puts it in play.
Vermont +9 Puts the No. 2 Kerry state in play.
New York +7.5 Big movement toward Rudy in suburbs, Hillary still carries
NYC 2 to 1. Puts it in play.
Massachusetts +7 John Kerry's home state, which probably gave him a bit of
a premium in '04.
New Hampshire +6.5 The one state Bush won in '00 and lost in '04. Puts it in play.
Pennsylvania +5.5 Repubs still far down in metro Philly, but state very much
in play.
Maine +5.5 Puts this state, which dropped off the Bush target list in
'04, back into play.
Dof Columbia +5 Still far, far out of reach of Republicans. Rudy runs better
with Hispanics than with whites.
Maryland +4.5 Rudy now competitive in one of six states Jimmy Carter carried
in '80.
Delaware +3.5 Smaller movement but puts it in play.