07/03/01 04:17:35 YHcCq7k8
中国経済の現状
モルガンスタンレー、ステファン・ローチ
URLﾘﾝｸ(www.morganstanley.com)
China Squeeze February 28, 2007
By Stephen S. Roach | New York
Following the equity market reforms of 2005, these previously unlisted shares have
since been classified as market tradable shares ? thereby opening the door for
actions such as those which became evident on 27 February. The 9% one-day plunge in
Chinese A-shares could certainly be interpreted as a sign that “inside sellers”
played a key role in sparking the decline ? either acting at the explicit request of
the government or out of fiduciary conviction that the end was close at hand.
Inside selling or not, the bottom line is that China’s macro control imperatives are
a critical ingredient of its overall stability objectives. And in recent years, risks
have been multiplying on the control front. Just as China cannot afford an overhang
of excess capacity, it cannot afford a major equity bubble. Lacking in market-based
mechanisms to address these problems, the administrative option remains a very
important tool in the Chinese policy arsenal. So far, that’s mainly been true on the
real side of the economy. The near-parabolic increase in the Chinese equity market
over the past six months is good reason to believe this strategy is about to be tested
on the financial side of the economy.
＃引用したパラの前半で言っているのは、来週の全人代で中国政府保有株式の更なる売りだしが
＃決められるとの情報で、政府インサイダーが株を売り、これが暴落のトリガーになったという
＃中国関係者に流れている噂。