15/10/09 17:17:45.93 H4yk95eo.net
>>252の続き
My sense, however, from episodes like the 1997-98 Asian crisis, is
that we often see a lot more contagion of economic crisis than this
kind of model can explain. So what else might go on?
One possibility is to focus on prices as well as volumes: it’s possible
that a Chinese slump could, via its impact on commodity prices, do
a lot more harm to some other emerging markets than the above analysis
suggests. I’m still working on this, although so far I don’t seem
to be finding much there.