15/10/09 17:15:17.61 H4yk95eo.net
>>251の続き
This may sound like an explosive process, but given realistic numbers
it’s actually convergent, and in fact the later-round effects should
be trivial. Chinese imports from the rest of the world are less than 3
percent of the ROW’s GDP. Suppose China experiences a 5 percent slump
in its own GDP; given an income elasticity of 2, which is reasonable, this
would mean a 10 percent fall in imports --- but that’s a shock to the rest
of the world of just 0.3 percent of GDP. Not nothing, but not that big a deal.