15/10/09 17:12:51.83 H4yk95eo.net
>>242の続き
Let me start with the case for not worrying too much, which comes down to
the fact that China’s economy, while big, is still a small fraction of
the global economy --- about 15 percent at market exchange rates, which
both Buiter and I consider the relevant number.
Now, we have a very old but still useful way to think about the simple
economics of interdependence: the foreign trade multiplier. Imagine a world
of two countries, A and B, in which A has a recession. This will cause
A’s imports from B to fall, with a contractionary effect on B. B’s contraction
leads to a fall in imports from A, leading to a further slump in A’s economy,
leading to still lower imports from B, and so on.