15/09/10 17:15:21.74 ozmUAsMx.net
>>209の続き
Things I got wrong
1. The scale of the disaster: I saw a housing bubble, knew the aftermath
would be bad, but had no idea how bad. I was blissfully ignorant of the rise
of shadow banking, wasn’t thinking about household debt, and wasn’t paying
attention to imbalances within the euro are.
2. Deflation: I thought that Japanese-style deflation was an imminent risk
in all depressed economies. Instead, low but positive inflation has been
remarkably persistent. I now think that I underestimated the important of
downward nominal rigidity, which combined with dispersal of shocks ---
some workers and firms face strong demand even in a weak economy --- tends
to keep prices rising even in a depressed world.