18/10/28 17:24:08.02 iMUwdM/v0.net
貿易戦争は買い手のアメリカが有利だ。中国は極端な重商主義的貿易でアメリカに依存し続けたため
代わりの買い手をみつける調整は難航し、ほぼ間違いなく失敗するだろう
URLﾘﾝｸ(carnegieendowment.org)
Trade deficits and surpluses typically force monetary and other economic changes in the affected
countries that tend to eliminate the imbalances. The fact that many large economies have run
substantial trade surpluses or deficits year after year, sometimes for decades, violates trade and
economic logic; this pattern is evidence that mercantilist policy distortions, either in the surplus
countries or in the deficit countries, are preventing trade from adjusting.
The idea that all countries lose in a trade war is unintelligible. This cannot possibly be true, not just
because there is overwhelming historical evidence that countries have benefitted from trade
intervention but also because the claim is logically impossible. Whether countries benefit or lose
from trade intervention depends on the underlying institutions that mediate trade and capital flows,
the extent of existing trade and capital flow imbalances, and the types of intervention employed.
While tariffs and other forms of trade intervention may indeed raise prices for consumers, this is only
one way, and often a minor way, in which these policy tools affect households. Depending on
underlying conditions, they may also reduce unemployment, cause wages to rise, and reduce the growth of debt.
アメリカが憂慮すべきは、既に過熱気味のアメリカの景気が冷えることではなく、さらに加熱することだ
URLﾘﾝｸ(www.theguardian.com)
FRBが利上げをした場合に発展途上国がどう反応するか予想するのは難しいが、仮に何らかの問題がおきたら
今回は中国にも波及するだろう