21/01/17 12:05:22.41 /MrggCE/.net
r1=100
n1=10000
r2=500
n2=10000
k=1e7
va=rbeta(k,1+r1,1+n1-r1) # vacccine
pl=rbeta(k,1+r2,1+n2-r2) # placebo
rr=pl/va
summary(rr)
quantile(rr,c(0.025,0.975))
NNT=1/(pl - va)
summary(NNT)
quantile(NNT,c(0.025,0.975))
mean(1/rr < 1/10)
> va=rbeta(k,1+r1,1+n1-r1) # vacccine
> pl=rbeta(k,1+r2,1+n2-r2) # placebo
> rr=pl/va
> summary(rr)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
2.932 4.626 4.973 5.009 5.353 9.562
> quantile(rr,c(0.025,0.975))
2.5% 97.5%
4.041894 6.182896
>
> NNT=1/(pl - va)
> summary(NNT)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
18.81 24.04 25.02 25.10 26.07 34.86
> quantile(NNT,c(0.025,0.975))
2.5% 97.5%
22.34791 28.29640
>
> mean(1/rr < 1/10)
[1] 0
>