19/08/14 15:28:16.70 rg2Nhb+h.net
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Alexander Pruss Dec 19 '13 at 15:05
What we have then is this: For each fixed opponent strategy, if i is chosen uniformly independently of that strategy (where the "independently" here isn't in the probabilistic sense), we win with probability at least (n-1)/n.
That's right. But now the question is whether we can translate this to a statement without the conditional "For each fixed opponent strategy".
answered Dec 9 '13 at 17:37
In order for such a question to make sense, it is necessary to put a probability measure on the space of functions f:N→R.
Note that to execute your proposed strategy, we only need a uniform measure on {1,…,N}, but to make sense of the phrase it fails with probability at most 1/N, we need a measure on the space of all outcomes.
The answer will be different depending on what probability space is chosen of course.
If it were somehow possible to put a 'uniform' measure on the space of all outcomes,
then indeed one could guess correctly with arbitrarily high precision,
but such a measure doesn't exist.
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