10/07/30 23:20:35
続きです②ｍ(_ _)ｍ
In the mid-seventeenth century, a simple question directed to Blaise Pascal by a nobleman sparked the birth of probability theory, as we know it today.
Chevalier de Méré gambled frequently to increase his wealth.
He bet on a roll of a die that at least one 6 would appear during a total of four rolls.
From past experience, he knew that he was more successful than not with this game of chance.
Tired of his approach, he decided to change the game. He bet that he would get a total of 12, or a double 6, on twenty-four rolls of two dice.
Soon he realized that his old approach to the game resulted in more money.
He asked his friend Blaise Pascal why his new approach was not as profitable.
Pascal worked through the problem and found that the probability of winning using the new approach was only 49.1 percent compared to 51.8 percent using the old approach (Smith, 1996).